Le Monde diplomatique
 The Nation
Richard Bulliet
Rami G. Khouri
Peter Kwong
Patrick Seale
Immanuel Wallerstein
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The Iranian Enigma| by Patrick Seale | Released: 19 Apr 2010 |
U.S. President Barack Obama is piling on the pressure on the Islamic Republic of Iran in an attempt to persuade it to halt its nuclear activities. He suspects, as do many others, that Iran is planning to build an atomic bomb, or is at least seeking to acquire the capability to do so.
Iran, however, has repeatedly said that it has no such intention. It has this past weekend hosted an international conference on nuclear disarmament -- its answer to Obama’s own recent Washington Summit on nuclear security.
In any event, most experts believe that, even if Iran were seeking to build a bomb, the technical difficulties are such that the process could take several more years. So, if Iran presents a danger, it is by no means imminent.
Nevertheless, Obama is sparing no effort to mobilise international support for a new UN Security Council Resolution imposing tough sanctions on Iran. In the draft being circulated, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps – the strong arm of the regime -- is being singled out for special punishment.
Obstacles remain, however. China and Russia, both permanent members of the Security Council, prefer to resolve the problem by means of dialogue with Tehran, rather than by confrontation. This is also Turkey’s view, a position it shares with Brazil and others.
Obama must surely know that Iran is in a defiant mood. Far from making it bend, additional sanctions could spur it to redouble its nuclear efforts. Sanctions would also set back the reconciliation with Iran, which Obama professed to want a year ago.
So why is he so insistent?
There are many strands to the answer -- some to do with America’s perception of its national interests, some to do with its domestic politics, and others driven by its close alliance with Israel.
Militarily and politically, the United States is the dominant external power in the oil-rich Gulf. It intends to remain so. Since Iran has pretensions of its own in this area, some in Washington see it as a dangerous rival, which needs to be contained, if not actually disarmed.
American politics are another factor. For more than three decades -- ever since the 1979 revolution which overthrew the Shah -- Americans have been brain-washed into believing that Iran is in the grip of an evil Islamic regime. Obama is facing mid-term elections in November. Such is the overheated state of opinion that he cannot afford to appear weak in dealing with Tehran.
Pro-Israeli neo-conservatives, and the Israeli lobby, have played a major role in demonising Iran – portraying it as an “existential’ danger” to the Jewish state, indeed as a threat to the entire world! Israel’s Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has no qualms in equating Iran’s President Mahmud Ahmadinejad with Hitler, and Iran’s nuclear program as threatening another Holocaust.
The reason is evident. Israel is the only nuclear power in the Middle East. It is determined, at all costs, to maintain its nuclear monopoly. It refuses to tolerate any sort of a regional balance of power, since this would restrict its ability to strike its neighbors at will. Israel’s greatest fear is that Obama might make a deal with Iran.
In much the same way as Israel and its friends roused America to overthrow Iraq’s Saddam Hussein, on the fraudulent charge that he possessed weapons of mass destruction -- because he posed a potential threat to Israel -- so today they are pressing relentlessly for armed action against Iran.
They would evidently prefer the United States itself to do the job. But if America will not act, Israel has threatened to attack alone. Obama’s sanctions are intended to head off such a catastrophic sequence of events, which would risk drawing the United States into the conflict.
What is the reality about Iran? It is a country that has undergone profound changes over the past two decades, but which have not yet found peaceful political expression -- as was demonstrated by the popular rebellion unleashed by the rigged elections last June. Iranian elections are held regularly, even if they are not entirely democratic. Repression might work in the short term, but cannot be a long-term solution. In a word, Iran is a vibrant democracy in the making.
Even under the rule of the Mullahs, it is one of the most open, modernized and integrated countries in the Middle East. The eight-year Iraq-Iran war, in which men from every region fought, has served to unite the country. Literacy has spread rapidly in the rural areas. Every village, however remote, is linked to a road -- which is more than can be said for some Arab states. Women may wear the chador, but they are a dynamic force in society. Over 60 per cent of university students are women.
In spite of the heavy hand of the religious establishment -- perhaps because of it -- Iran has known a remarkable flowering of artistic talent -- in film, theatre, music, literature and photography.
Barack Obama should know that confrontation will only strengthen the hardliners in Iran and weaken the democrats. Engagement -- opening up Iran to investment and to intellectual and scientific exchange -- would be the best way to dispel whatever danger Iran might pose.
Patrick Seale is a leading British writer on the Middle East. His latest book is The Struggle for Arab Independence: Riad el-Solh and the Makers of the Modern Middle East (Cambridge University Press).
Copyright © 2010 Patrick Seale – distributed by Agence Global
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Released: 19 April 2010
Word Count: 854
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