The Summer of al-Qaeda

by Richard Bulliet

Released: 31 Jan 2004

As America enters the presidential election season, the War on Terror and the occupation of Iraq abound in politically perilous uncertainties. Will Osama be caught? Will al-Qaeda launch another attack on American soil? Will the resistance in Iraq intensify? Will an orderly transition to some sort of Iraqi rule take place?

These uncertainties are known to everyone, but they must be particularly unsettling to the managers of President Bush’s reelection campaign. Isn’t there any War on Terror scenario that the Bush administration has completely under control? Not an attack on Syria or Iran, of course. It is too late in the presidential season to coax the American public into another war, and the build-up to war would take too long. Isn’t there something else that would be politically useful?

The answer to this question is yes. The United States government has complete control of the timing and legal procedures by which the Guantanamo detainees are put on trial. Two years have elapsed since their seizure in the attack on Afghanistan. They must be about wrung dry as intelligence sources. But their trials could give the Bush reelection campaign a major boost by drawing public attention away from the more uncertain aspects of America’s overseas adventure.

Let us suppose that significant leaders of al-Qaeda were captured in Afghanistan. Let us further suppose that there is sufficient documentary material and evidence drawn from interrogation to prove beyond the shadow of a doubt that these al-Qaeda leaders participated in or knew about all sorts of operations or plans for operations against the United States.

Putting these individuals on trial would give a face to the enemy that has until now been a shadowy unknown. The news media would need no coaxing to give the story maximum coverage. The prosecution would have an opportunity to show that despite their long and legally questionable detention, the detainees are to be given lawyers and a legal process that seems fair to the electorate.

Imagine the political impact of televised legal proceedings filling the slow news period of late summer. Everyone in the United States would watch. Just as the invasion of Iraq took the public mind off the elusive Osama bin Laden and the sputtering War on Terror, now the War on Terror would take the public mind off the elusive peace in Iraq and the sputtering occupation.

So long as the trials proceeded in a seemingly fair fashion, it would be a show that no Democratic presidential candidate could match. Like everyone else, they would spend hours watching the television and scanning newspaper articles waiting for the next revelation.

There is no point asking whether this plan has been thought of in the White House. The official answer to such a question would be that everything related to the Guantanamo detainees is off-limits because it involves national security and the War on Terror. The real answer is: Of course they’ve thought about it. It is the only completely controllable move available in the War on Terror, and it would be foolish to think that uncertainties in Iraq or a failure to capture Osama are going to keep the Bush reelection team from making the War on Terror the centerpiece of the campaign.

How should a Democratic candidate prepare for a prospective Summer of al-Qaeda? First, focus early and forcefully on Iraq. Some things are bound to go bad there, and the Democrats can hope that the voters will make up their minds early that Iraq was a grave national mistake. That will make it somewhat harder for the Bush camp to shift the national agenda back to al-Qaeda.

Second, as soon as trials are mentioned, ask why it has taken so long and show an eagerness to see the real face of the enemy. This will make it easier to maintain that the invasion of Iraq was an unnecessary diversion.

Third, arrange for a battery of sympathetic experts to follow the trials closely and make themselves available to the media as commentators. The Bush administration’s success in keeping the news media focused on the government’s message throughout the war in Iraq clearly demonstrated that anyone interested in stopping his drive for reelection must have an effective media plan.

This vision of a Summer of al-Qaeda is all supposition, of course. We will all have to wait to see when the show will begin. But I’m laying in a supply of popcorn and canceling my out-of-town trips for August.

Richard Bulliet is Professor of History at Columbia University and author of Islam: A View from the Edge.

Copyright © 2004 Agence Global
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Released: 2 Feb 2004
Word Count: 743
Contact: Agence Global, +1.336.686.9002, henry@agenceglobal.com

Topics:

Afghanistan

Africa

Arab World

China

Europe

Iran

Iraq