The Fallout from the Iraqi-Syrian Crisis

by Patrick Seale

Released: 7 Sep 2009

The crisis that has blown up between Baghdad and Damascus is only the latest demonstration of the deep mutual suspicion that divides Arab leaders, crippling any attempt at joint Arab action on the international stage. Clearly, the ‘Arab Cold War’ rages on unabated.

Just when U.S. President Barack Obama is attempting to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict -- a conflict which has held the region hostage for decades and drained Arab energies -- Arab leaders remain unable to unite in pursuit of common goals. The Palestinians have the greatest stake in Obama’s efforts but, like other Arabs, they present the most woeful spectacle of disunity and infighting.

It is striking that it is Turkey, rather than any Arab state, which is attempting to mediate between Iraq and Syria. Turkey’s Prime Minister Tayyip Recep Erdogan has telephoned both Iraq’s Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and Syria’s President Bashar al-Asad to urge reconciliation, while Turkey’s Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu has visited the two capitals.

Relations between Maliki and Asad are now at rock bottom. The change in climate has been brutal. Only last month, Maliki was in Damascus to conclude security and trade agreements between the two countries.

The immediate trigger for the collapse of the relationship was the devastating suicide bombings in Baghdad on 19 August which killed nearly 100 people. For the first time in several years, the terrorists’ main targets were public buildings, notably the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Finance. The bombings were actually claimed by the “Islamic State of Iraq,” a shadowy Sunni fundamentalist faction of unknown strength.

Maliki has accused Syria of hosting the perpetrators, which he declared were former members of the Iraqi Baath Party, acting in complicity with Syria’s own intelligence services. He demanded that Syria extradite the suspects to Iraq. Meanwhile, the two countries have recalled their ambassadors, and Iraq has sent police reinforcements to the border.

Asad has responded angrily to Maliki’s accusation, calling it irresponsible and damaging to Syrian-Iraqi relations. “The least that can be said about this accusation is that it is immoral,” he declared. “Syria is accused of killing Iraqis at a time when it is hosting 1.2m Iraqis” -- a reference to the large numbers of Iraqis to whom Syria has given refuge from the violence unleashed by the American invasion.

In the early years of America’s occupation of Iraq -- from 2003 onwards -- Syria had an evident interest in supporting the Iraqi insurgency, and allowed jihadis to cross its border into Iraq. Had the United States been successful in Iraq, Syria knew that it would have been the next target. Having pushed the U.S. to overthrow Saddam Hussein -- and thus improve Israel’s strategic environment -- the pro-Israeli neo-cons high up in George W. Bush’s Administration made no secret of their eagerness to overthrow the Syrian regime in turn.

But now that the Obama Administration has begun to disengage from Iraq, Syria’s strong interest lies in establishing flourishing trade and energy links with a stable and prosperous Iraq. Therefore, the suggestion that Syria lies behind the recent bombings in Baghdad strains credibility.

Rather, the violence demonstrates the great political fragility of Iraq, a prey to sectarian demons and clan warfare. The 19 August bombings, like the many other acts of terror which have flared up since U.S. combat troops withdrew from Iraqi cities last June, point to the dreadful legacy of the American invasion -- notably the destruction of the Iraqi army and Baath Party, the two institutions which had held the country together.

Prime Minister Maliki is clearly having the greatest difficulty in controlling a deteriorating security situation. Some observers believe that his accusations against Syria are an attempt to distract attention from his own political weakness, damaged by the wave of terrorist attacks.

He has been having a great deal of trouble with the coalition partners who put him in power as Prime Minister in March 2006. The coalition which won the elections was made up of his own Da‘wa Party, of the Supreme Islamic Council of Iraq, and of two smaller groupings, the Sadrists and Fadila.

Maliki now faces the unsettling prospect of fresh elections next January. In anticipation of the poll, he has demanded guarantees from the other parties that, in the event of victory, he will retain the premiership. They have refused, and have instead set up their own Shi‘ite coalition, excluding the Da‘wa.

Maliki has struck back. In an attempt to shed his sectarian Shi‘ite image, he has portrayed himself as an Iraqi nationalist, intent on protection the country against all-comers. He has taken the credit for ‘liberating’ Iraq from the American occupation, and he has formed his own ‘non-sectarian’ coalition of Shi‘ites, Sunnis, Kurds and Christians.

But, to most observers, he seems intent on consolidating his own personal power. He appears to have alarmed Tehran -- which is closer to the new Shi‘ite coalition -- but he has failed to convince Saudi Arabia and Egypt that he has Arab interests at heart. His quarrel with Syria has increased his isolation.

Maliki’s fatal weakness is that, although he proclaims himself an Iraqi nationalist, he still behaves like a sectarian. He has notably failed to bring about reconciliation with the Sunni minority, and plainly considers Saddam Hussein loyalists as his most bitter enemies.

Iraq’s road to stability and prosperity is likely to be long and hard.

Patrick Seale is a leading British writer on the Middle East, and the author of The Struggle for Syria; also, Asad of Syria: The Struggle for the Middle East; and Abu Nidal: A Gun for Hire.

Copyright © 2009 Patrick Seale – distributed by Agence Global

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Released: 07 September 2009
Word Count: 883
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